John Vidal (July 22) report on the famine in East Africa, says the great drought appeared "as if from nowhere". It may seem that way, but in reality the shock of this famine highlights a more worrying problem in aid. There is a system of warning of long famine for Somalia, food security and nutrition (FSNAU) evaluation unit, the question is, why wasn't effective this time?
Vidal is right to say that what is happening in Somalia was completely predictable. But as points out, "the Governments that were slow to respond [in 2008]... are willing to help now".?The most recent report of FSNAU indicates that there are abysmal conditions in some areas and a shortage of relief. But, fundamentally, could not provide a clear prediction of how conditions could evolve. Warning effective must meet three conditions: that needs help, relief of how much is required and when is it necessary?? Warning is required in advance and they are slow to move and distribute food, and must convince donors of food aid needed to find large amounts of money in the short term.
Vidal writes: "fifty years, the region had regular 10-year climate cycles that mostly they were followed by a major drought, and now droughts are becoming more frequently and last longer". In fact and in the last three decades have evolved two rival approaches to early warning. The first system of "Indicator" was proposed by the World Conference on food in 1974, after the failure to anticipate the crisis in the Sahel and Ethiopia. A complex version of this: the classification phase integrated: is currently used in Somalia. These systems are based on simple measures such as rainfall, crop production and the prices of food, which is expected to indicate the availability of food. But at the end of the 1970s, it was found that they do not produce reliable predictions.
As Vidal notes, pastoralists have survived long droughts, although their lifestyles are often represented as "outside national overall development". Rural households can often survive droughts and other shocks because they are sources of miscellaneous income and can survive for sellingcan sell assets or use stocks of wild foods or by mutual assistance - and there is no direct relationship between a crop or "shock" and hunger.
The alternative livelihoods approach was developed from the work of Economist Nobel Amartya Senator this is based on detailed, quantified information on the family economy and gives the necessary operational details for the prediction and prompt response. It has come into use in much of southern Africa. For example, Malawi avoids famine in 2005-06 after an error in cultivation, through a rapid response of donors based on rational support information.
In the last decade, indicator systems have failed in Malawi (2002) and Niger (2005). Persist in part perhaps because they are relatively simple, in part due to poor institutional memory and in part because emergency agencies still enjoy considerable freedom of action.
It is too early to say exactly why we have been surprised by the current crisis in Somalia. The issue is important and in due time, the United Nations should provide a full explanation. Failure to anticipate and prepare for famine will have an enormous cost in deaths, interrupted lives and livelihoods and the misery of large populations it much more difficult the further development.
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